The Recent Irish Election

 

The Recent Irish Election       Gerry OShea

Unlike most countries, the two large parties that dominate Irish politics were not formed along class lines. Their history goes back to a vote by delegates at a crucial Dail meeting on January 7^th, 1922, which narrowly approved the Anglo-Irish Treaty with 64 in favor and 57 opposed.

Many of those on the losing side rationalized that they were not bound by the result of the vote in the Dail because they had sworn an oath to an elusive Republic that superseded the vote in parliament.

After a disastrous 11-month civil war, Eamon De Valera, the main spokesman for the Treaty rejectionists, founded a new party called Fianna Fail in 1928 that promised to push the country in an aggressively Republican direction.

He was elected Taoiseach (prime minister) in 1932 and continued in that position until 1948. Ironically, it was his successor, John A Costello from the Fine Gael Party, which rejected much of the Republican rhetoric, who withdrew the country from the British Commonwealth and declared Ireland a Republic in 1949.

The civil war traditions did not evaporate easily. In fact, most Irish families associated with FF or FG and were predictable in their voting allegiance at election time. While these parties headed successive governments in Dublin, they both yielded to the teaching of the Irish Catholic bishops in the vital areas of education, healthcare and sexuality.  

The 1990’s ushered in major changes in Irish culture, including religion and politics. In 1991, condoms were permitted for sale in Ireland without prescription to everybody over 16, and civil divorce was legalized in 1995. Thirteen years later, despite a crie de coeur from traditionalists, abortion was permitted in Ireland after a referendum. In Yeats’ words, in a different context, the country had “changed utterly.”

Three main parties contested the general election on November 29^th this year, the two traditional parties, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, and Sinn Fein, who, since the Good Friday Agreement in 1997, has become part of mainstream politics in the North, where they are the largest party, and, under the leadership of Mary Lou McDonald, they vie with the two traditional groups for dominance in the South.

FF and FG are finishing a term running the country with support from the Green Party which, although a relatively small minority group, exercised real power in the government, insisting especially on prioritizing environmental issues. The election results were devastating for the Greens; only one candidate, their leader, Roderick O’Gorman, was re-elected.

It is hard to understand the dynamics of Irish politics in this area where the electorate punishes minority parties for participating in government in the subsequent election. This has applied to the Labor Party after government involvement on numerous occasions over the years.

The Labor Party did well in the recent elections, ending up with eleven seats in the new parliament, and, amazingly, their first order of business involves deciding whether they will participate as a minority group in supporting FF and FG in the new government that will be installed next month.

The Social Democrats, an offspring of Labor with similar policies, also performed well with ten members in the new parliament. They, too, are considered possible coalition partners for the big parties.

Michael Martin, who led Fianna Fail to bumper results in the November election, won’t consider a coalition with Sinn Fein, the flagship nationalist party, because it seems he considers them tainted by the IRA campaign during the Troubles. This is somewhat paradoxical considering that De Valera’s Fianna Fail was similarly shunned in its early years because many of its leaders fought on the Republican side in the Civil War.

Sinn Fein leaders are meeting with the left-wing parties, Labor and the Social Democrats, but they are not close to the magic number of at least 88 TD’s needed to form a government.

Despite the fall of most moderate parties in other European countries, the center-right coalition will retain power in Dublin. Polls taken a few months before the November showdown revealed Sinn Fein, clearly left of center, registering support at around 35%, but due to a series of internal party crises as well as a lackluster performance in Dail debates, on election day their support had sunk to 18%, compared to 19% for FG and over 22% for Michael Martin’s triumphant FF.

The Irish economy is booming because so many large American corporations that want access to EU markets have set up in Ireland, which has some real advantages in enticing them to settle in Dublin or elsewhere on the island.

 First, since Brexit, Ireland is the only English-speaking country in the EU, a major plus. Second, the Irish workforce is exceptionally well-educated and, reputedly, open to learning new skills. Third, political and social conditions are stable on the island since the Belfast Agreement successfully ended the Troubles in the North.

While there are major challenges ahead, in particular dealing with children’s poverty and the disastrous shortage of housing, the country is prosperous overall, and the Irish workforce is edging inexorably to three million from just two million ten years ago.

 With corporate taxes yielding close to a massive 30 billion euros annually, it is no wonder that the electorate opted for a continuation of middle-of-the-road government.

Gerry OShea blogs at wemustbetalking.com