Prospects for A United Ireland

 

Prospects for a United Ireland        Gerry OShea

ARINS, Analyzing and Researching Ireland North and South, is the rather unwieldy title for an important joint project of the Royal Irish Academy and the Irish Studies Department of the University of Notre Dame. The Irish Times newspaper lends its name and prestige to the work which recently published its second annual report.

The purpose of this effort involves focusing on the beliefs and feelings of the communities in both parts of Ireland about transitioning to a united country. The identical polls used in the North and the South endeavor to provide a snapshot of what people believe about various social, economic, and political issues related to the desirability of a united Ireland. The study does not presuppose or advocate for any constitutional change.

The polling method is very thorough, involving in-home interviews of 1000 respondents chosen in each jurisdiction to represent the diversity of both populations. The margin of error is estimated at a meager 3.1%. The goal is to provide independent and unbiased information on the public's feelings on the island's political future.

These surveys also provide insights into the kinds of new arrangements that might best reflect the culture of a united island. For instance, flags and emblems are viewed as very important in both the nationalist and unionist communities. How open are both sides to accommodation in this area which is suffused with emotion?

The Good Friday Agreement stipulates that the Northern Ireland Secretary should only call for a plebiscite on Irish unity when it would likely succeed. ARINS research suggests that based on that criterion the referendum date is a long way down the road.

Sinn Fein is now the biggest political party in Northern Ireland with the DUP, the largest unionist grouping, lagging far behind by almost 8%. The Social Democratic and Labor Party is also firmly in the nationalist corner, and with a share of backing for change in the burgeoning Alliance Party, a slight majority of the overall population comes from a Catholic nationalist background although many of these voters no longer align with their family’s church allegiance.

In response to the question, how would you vote in a referendum on a United Ireland, 21% of these Northern Ireland citizens from the broad nationalist family claim that they would cast their ballot for the status quo, leaving Westminster in charge. Significantly, the pollsters recorded the same percentage of people from a nationalist background opposing a united country last year.

There is no comparable leakage among unionists where only about 4% see a united Ireland as a viable option – again the same low figure emerged in last year’s survey suggesting that a siege mentality prevails.

Why is one in five people from the broad Catholic community in the North opting for the status quo, especially at a time when Great Britain is showing multiple signs of economic decline and political disarray?

The Brexit decision in 2016 to leave the European Union compounded the slow recovery from the 2008 worldwide financial crash. The losses to date are estimated to be in the range of 2-3 percent of GDP. Studies reveal a significant drop in the standard of living in Great Britain, especially among the poor and marginalized.

 The fact that they have burned through no less than five prime ministers since the Brexit vote highlights chaotic times in Westminster.

While it is true that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has gone some way to repairing the damage caused by his predecessors in Northern Ireland by mending diplomatic and economic relations with Europe, the British economy remains in the doldrums.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development includes 20 countries that account for 80% of the world’s economy. Britain’s inflation problem is worse than all except for Argentina and Turkey, both of whom qualify for basket case treatment.

Back to Northern Ireland where economic growth remains close to the bottom compared to other regions in the struggling United Kingdom. Ask any resident there about the state of the health services, once admired for efficiency and high quality, and you will hear stories of long waiting lists, stretching to years in some cases. Other areas of government service in the North have also fallen below acceptable standards.

Some commentators predicted that this decline in public services would result in more Northerns looking south where the economy is strong for a better standard of living. ARINS research suggests that most people are not moved to change their views about the constitutional question based on economic considerations.

The ARINS research confirms that a clear majority of the people in the Republic would respond affirmatively in any unity referendum. However, the mood in Northern Ireland so far is determined by the age-old religious divide. The adage that Loyalist allegiance to the monarchy is cemented not by the crown but by the half-crown does not represent contemporary reality.

In their recent survey, the question was asked whether if unionists were offered an inducement of 3500 pounds sterling annually would that make it more likely for them to vote for a united Ireland. Just 23% of that community responded that it might get them to rethink their allegiance to the status quo. For Catholics currently favoring a continuation of Westminster rule, the results show that just 33% would consider changing.

Irish nationalists keep a close eye on Scotland and the efforts of the Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) to leave the United Kingdom. The separation referendum there in September 2014 failed by nearly 20%, and the SNP has lost ground since because of an internal scandal about the misappropriation of party funds.

Polling after the 2014 vote revealed that many citizens stayed with the status quo because it provided certainty about pension and healthcare benefits which they were unwilling to risk losing. The devil you know philosophy militated against change.

This perspective is shared by substantial numbers of northern Catholics and persuading these voters that they will do better by joining the south presents the biggest challenge for nationalist leaders.

Gerry OShea blogs at wemustetalking.com