CRISIS in UNIONISM
Reflecting
on these numbers, one commentator wrote: “This is what unionists should be
really fretting about because their love for Britain is increasingly
unrequited. They are in a cold marriage where their partner is bored,
indifferent and disconnected.”
Prime
minister Sunak went to Belfast with considerable fanfare to sell the Windsor
Arrangement. He didn’t have to worry about the nationalist community. All their
leaders had welcomed the deal because they want local government in Stormont
restored, followed, they hope, by the re-emergence of some semblance of
normality in Belfast politics.
However, convincing
the loyalists presented a major challenge for the prime minister because a
majority in their community views the proposals negotiated between Brussels and
Westminster as continuing to leave the North with a divided status, keeping
them with a leg in both camps.
Mr. Sunak, buoyed by a positive response to
his proposals in London, pressed an argument in Belfast that is loaded with
irony. He told the unionists that in addition to maintaining access to British
markets business people in Northern Ireland – unlike their compatriots
elsewhere in the United Kingdom - will benefit from full and unconditional
access to the huge EU markets that encompass 447 million people.
The Prime
Minister argued that this important entitlement should sway unionists in favor
of the Windsor document. In particular, he stressed that big American companies
would be drawn to Belfast because of the open European market.
He was hoping that they would set aside the
central argument made by his Conservative Party that urged people to vote for
Brexit, their claim that Britain would do better outside of the cumbersome trading rules mandated by Brussels.
The
Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has set up a committee of elders to reflect on
all the complexities of the Windsor proposal. Their deliberations will last into
April, a clear indication of long-fingering a decision because they find
themselves between a rock and a hard place.
Saying yes
to the Windsor deal would enrage their own hardliners who might well defect to
the more militaristic Traditional Unionist Voice, but a negative response to a
Tory government with a massive majority in parliament would surely have serious
consequences for their continued place in the United Kingdom. Expect an effort
at some kind of a fudge by the DUP.
Unionists have a long history of saying no.
They prefer the old shibboleths that worked for them when they enjoyed a clear
majority in the Belfast parliament. However, in the last Stormont election they
were beaten into second place by Sinn Fein, their bete noire, whom they barely
talk to, not to mind sharing power with them.
In past instances
when they disagreed with particular government policies promoted in Westminster,
they would always stress their primary allegiance to the monarchy. This time,
they were irate that the Windsor agreement was signed in the King’s home with
Charles all but giving it his benediction by formally welcoming the European
leader Ursula von der Leyen and the Prime Minister. Unionists condemned this
involvement of the royalty as deeply offensive to their sensitivities.
What about
the people back in the six counties of Ulster that remain under British
control? A LucidTalk poll conducted two months ago suggests that the unionist
community is in disarray, unsure where to look for encouragement. 64% of the
respondents in the North said that they still support the Good Friday Agreement
(GFA) but only 35% of unionists view it favorably.
That
agreement, which led to the establishment of local government in Stormont, was
approved by 71% of the voters across Northern Ireland in a plebiscite in 1998.
It initiated the end of thirty years of daily violence which all sides dubbed
The Troubles. Not surprisingly because of the peace dividend, two thirds of the
population there still applaud the GFA. However, a majority of unionists say
that they would vote against if it was on a ballot tomorrow.
The
respondents in this poll also supported the restoration of Stormont,
irrespective of decisions in the wider Brexit negotiations, by a majority of
60% overall but only 21% of DUP voters concur.
Complicating
efforts to achieve progress, the loyalist community in the North feel under
siege because demographic changes are evident in all parts of the province,
especially in the Catholic majorities attending schools and universities.
Stuart Brooker, an assistant grand master of the Grand Orange Lodge of Ireland,
expressed clearly this growing sense of isolation: “We feel diminished. It is a
lonely position.”
Predictably,
this sense of grievance has led to increased recruitment by paramilitary
Loyalist groups who feel that their services may be needed to defend their
version of who should exercise political power in the statelet. Reliable
estimates suggest that these militias now have 12,500 members.
It is
noticeable that the nationalist political parties in Dublin and Belfast are
muted in their criticism of the DUP. They see the party dealing with a crisis
of identity with no easy solutions, as they try to negotiate their way out of a
challenging dilemma which is only a sideshow in the wider negotiations between Brussels
and Westminster.
They realize
that they are dealing with a group of people that feel isolated, stuck with a
defiant culture that perhaps served them well in the past but is no longer
relevant. Political vitriol from leaders in Dublin or Belfast would only make
the situation worse. Stuart Brooker’s plea for understanding resonates with many
of them.
Loyalists
used to rally against what they called popery, clear in their own beliefs in
biblical Christianity and always denigrating Catholic teaching emanating from
Rome. Their most powerful voice and founder of the DUP, Ian Paisley, led the
charge in Europe against the man he named “old red socks.”
Today, the
Catholic church in Ireland has been emasculated and is on its knees because of
the deplorable history of clerical sexual abuse of children and the terrors of
the Magdalene laundries. Just one priest was ordained for Irish dioceses last
year – and two bishops.
All the
parties in Northern Ireland – Sinn Fein, Alliance, SDLP, the Greens, and UUP -
want the restoration of a government in Stormont, but the main unionist group,
the DUP, holds a veto over this and is still saying no with dire consequences
for the provision of government services
there.
The DUP has
to decide whether they will continue to court obsolescence or move away from
their role as surly and recalcitrant unionist leaders opening their party to
new possibilities suggested by the Good Friday Agreement and the Windsor
Arrangement.
Gerry
OShea blogs at wemustbetalking.com
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