Final
Thoughts on the Election Gerry
OShea
A recent
study examining party affiliation among adults in the United States revealed
that the biggest slice of the electorate, 43%, define themselves as Independent,
meaning they are not committed to either political party. According to the
same report, Republicans and Democrats can each claim the solid allegiance of
just 27% of voters.
The uncommitted
multitudes like to explain that they assess each election based on the policies
presented by the various candidates. They boast that they cannot be taken for
granted and are sometimes disdainful of those who vote based on party
allegiance.
An
acquaintance of mine, Sean, a fellow Irishman and declared independent voter,
long retired from the NYPD, who reads the Irish Echo every week and so is clear
about my political preferences, approached me last week to confide his voting dilemma.
He told me that he has no time for Harris and less for Walz, and even though he
hasn’t voted for a Democrat since JFK in 1960, John Kelly’s stern condemnation of
Donald Trump has confirmed his suspicion that the Republican candidate is a
“vain non-identity” who shouldn’t be let near the Oval Office.
Sean claimed
to be consulting me for advice: “Should I hold my nose and give Harris the
stroke or just stay away on November 5th?” He is a proud conservative who supported
Republican Party candidates in every election for sixty years. His decision to
change on this occasion was nerve-wracking for him, and he wanted to explain
his reasoning to me while asserting it would be a once-off event because he
retains his dislike of Democrats, in his words, with all their works and pomps.
The high
level of declared independents is misleading. Most of these voters – like Sean
- lean heavily towards one of the two main parties, confirming that, despite
the low declared political affiliation, the country is close to evenly divided.
I estimate that the number of genuine independents is around 12% of the
electorate.
Both parties
are spending massive sums of money, counted in hundreds of millions, to
influence the remaining undecided voters. Research shows that most people are
driven by fear and emotion rather than rational arguments in the heat of
political campaigns.
In practice,
this means that voters are influenced by messages that stress the negative
rather than ones that highlight the positive. Research scientists confirm that
negative images and statements about candidates and policies cause heightened
activity in the brain's prefrontal cortex, the part most associated with
decision-making.
Politics is
a bare-knuckle fight, and our brains reflect that. Negative political
advertising works and brain scans confirm its crucial importance in influencing
unsure voters. As Donald Trump told Bob Woodward: real power is fear.
From the
early stages of the campaign Donald Trump has named retribution as a major theme
in his plans. He does not hide his intention of extending the powers of the
presidency to punish his political opponents. He has spoken openly about disregarding
the Constitution. He believes, without any smidgin of credible evidence, that
President Biden and Attorney General Merrick Garland are secretly cooperating in
prodding the efforts of various attorneys and judges to convict him and land him
in jail.
In recent times,
he has made the outlandish assertion that his political opponents, exemplified
by Nancy Pelosi and Adam Schiff, are “vermin” and “the enemy from within.” According
to his rhetoric, these Democrats are much more hostile to the well-being of the
United States than America-hating leaders in Moscow and Peking.
If elected,
he plans to replace thousands of top civil servants in order to break out of
the “deep state,” a derogatory expression about the work of the various bureaucrats
in the many government departments. Their replacements will be hired as toadies
who follow instructions dictated by the White House.
General John
Kelly and dozens of other leaders who served during Trump’s first term as
president have warned that he is an out-and-out fascist with little knowledge
of history who has shamefully lauded some aspects of Hitler’s leadership. This was
a man responsible for the murder of over six million Jews and hundreds of
thousands of American servicemen and women, not to mention the destruction of a
whole continent.
Trump
proposes a new tariff regime on goods coming into the United States. Nearly all
the top economists predict this will lead to high inflation that will directly
cost every family about $4000 a year. He will also cut income and corporate
taxes that will largely benefit the wealthy and the super-wealthy.
The
Harris/Walz alternative would direct nearly all taxation changes to help the
poor and middle class. This contrast is becoming a major focus in the campaign's
final days.
Republicans,
traditionally, claim that they are worried about the ballooning national
deficit, pointing out that it is immoral to pass on debt to future generations. Their
critique on this matter is entirely correct. It is disgraceful and unethical to
run up big bills that our children and grandchildren must pay with interest.
Only Bill
Clinton balanced the budget and reduced the deficit; the one whose term in
office did the most damage by far in this area was Donald Trump. It is
noticeable that he or his main spokesmen do not mention the D word in the
campaign. However, the serious economists reviewing his plans are unanimous
that if his policies are implemented, they will again balloon the national
debt.
I have not
seen any study examining the impact on the election of the dual attempts at assassinating
Mr. Trump. Two acquaintances of mine, both seniors, whose political allegiance
I am unsure of, stressed to me that the gunshot that clipped his ear was only a
half inch away from killing him. They concluded that divine providence
protected him, and both agreed that he would surely benefit from a sympathy
vote because of these failed attempts to assassinate him.
Gaza looms
over American politics. October 7th involved a terrible terrorist
act, but over 40,000 people were killed since by Israeli fighter planes using
bombs supplied by Washington. The nightly pictures of hungry children trying to
deal with their plight are haunting many Americans, and they will impact the
voting on November 5th, especially in Michigan.
This is a
hugely consequential election for the future of America.
Gerry
OShea blogs at wemustbetalking.com
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