The 2024 Presidential Election Gerry OShea
Senator Mitt
Romney in announcing his retirement from the Senate last month suggested that
the two current likely major-party nominees for the presidency should step down:
“I think it would be great if both President Biden and former President Trump
were to stand aside and let their respective parties choose someone from the
next generation.”
More
problematical for Mr. Biden than the ruminations of the Utah senator are the
results of a recent CNN poll where 67% of Democrats said that they hoped he
would not be renominated, reflecting widespread concerns in his own party that the
president who will be 82 on Inauguration Day is too old for the job. Imagining
him dozing off when a sharp mind is needed will constitute the mocking parlance
promoted by opponents.
Democrats
point to the impressive list of legislation that has emerged from President
Biden’s first term. The American Rescue Plan protected workers’ pensions, as
well as providing money for affordable housing and for struggling small
business owners.
He signed a $1
trillion infrastructure bill which in addition to bringing high-speed internet
to rural communities provided badly needed funds for repairing roads, bridges
and railroads throughout the country. Furthermore, he introduced the Inflation
Reduction Act, making health insurance plans more affordable, and lowering drug
costs by requiring Medicare to negotiate the prices of ten expensive prescription
medicines in common use.
These and
other examples of progressive leadership have marked the Biden administration
as the most forward-looking and responsive to people’s needs since President
Johnson in the 1960’s.
Despite
these real accomplishments, almost half of Americans believe the economy is
poor and getting worse. In a post-midterm poll in battleground states conducted
by the highly regarded Way to Win, a staggering 78% of voters said they
couldn’t name one positive piece of legislation that Biden and his party had
passed.
While
unemployment is at a record low with over 13 million new jobs created after he
took over in the White House, inflation has ravaged the earning power of
Americans since the Covid pandemic. This is evident in the huge increases in
the prices of staple foods in the supermarket; in addition, interest rate hikes
have upped the cost of big-ticket items – homes, cars, college, housing – to
the point where they are no longer affordable for many families.
Blaming
President Biden for substantial increases in the cost of living may seem unfair
but his administration is the one in power and soaring costs of everyday goods
certainly darken people’s feelings about political leaders, especially the ones
at the top.
Emotions,
gut feelings and prejudices against various groups are major influences on voting
patterns in every election. However, policy issues also matter especially when
the two parties clearly operate from different principles. There are two areas
where these considerations apply and will likely influence the election results,
especially in swing states, in November 2024.
The failure
of Congress to enact sensible gun control because of the gun lobby’s power over
the Republican Party is showing in polls as a growing worry, especially for
families apprehensive about sending their children to school. Children’s deaths
from gun violence, already at an all-time high, increased by 12% last year
while the number of wounded also grew by 11%.
Most Democrats want laws that limit gun
ownership to people over 21 years after they go through a police check and some
minimal training in the use and storage of weapons. They would also ban possession
of machine guns like AR-15’s by anyone outside of the defense forces. More and
more young people see how ridiculous and really dangerous the present system is
and it will impact the voting decisions of substantial numbers of parents and
grandparents next year.
Access to
abortion has become a major point of contention since the Roe ruling was overturned.
Young women especially see this as a major encroachment on their lives, and
surveys taken after various local elections, including the mid-terms, confirm
that this issue brings many young voters to the polls on the side of Democratic
candidates.
The
president’s advisors see clearly the problems he faces in his bid for
re-election, especially his age and the effects of high inflation. They like to
say that he shouldn’t be compared to some perfect opponent representing a party
with a well-developed program for government.
Mitt Romney
describes the worsening chaos in the Republican Party as disastrous for the
future of democracy in the United States and he condemns the leadership, headed
by Donald Trump and his coterie of yes-men, as a bunch of fakers.
Mr. Trump is
so far ahead of all the contenders for the Republican nomination that the
battle seems to be between Haley and DeSantis for a distant second place. The
Republican leadership in the House of Representatives is in disarray. Speaker McCarthy
was kicked out when he lost the support of eight colleagues – 4% - in his
conference, and his second-in-command, Steve Scalise, also bit the dust after a
dozen or so House Republicans rejected him. Jim Jordan from the far-right of
the party whose behavior during the attack on the Capitol was reprehensible also
failed to secure a mandate for leadership.
Keep in mind
that Republicans won a majority in the House of Representatives and so they are
supposed to be playing a big part in running the country. In reality, they are
in constant disarray, have failed to pass any meaningful legislation, and their
efforts to agree on a Speaker has been appropriately compared to a malfunctioning
trapeze act.
It is
difficult to contemplate that most of the Republican leaders serving in the
House of Representatives do not accept the legitimacy of the result of the last
presidential election. They continue to support Donald Trump’s asinine
contention that he was cheated out of victory in the race for the White House
in November 2020.
Mr. Trump’s
lawyers appeared in dozens of state courts asserting he was wronged. The Authorities examined their allegations of serious
election malfeasance and found them to be baseless. Judges in most cases
dismissed the allegations without even a hearing because of the lack of any
evidence of corruption.
Amazingly, tens
of millions of Americans, at least one-third of the electorate, go along with Trump’s
preposterous assertions of grievance. The
level of popular credulity on this crucial matter leaves a serious question
mark over the continuation of the democratic system in the United States. What
inconvenient fact will they deny next? Or what unconstitutional stunt will they
espouse to grab power down the road?
Trump has
been sued in New York and indicted in Georgia, Florida, Manhattan and
Washington after a wave of legal scrutiny related to his behavior in business
and politics. The first case, a civil action brought by Letitia James, the New
York Attorney General, went to trial in October. Some of the others, all
criminal lawsuits, carrying years in jail if he is convicted, will begin while
the presidential campaign is in progress.
Many
citizens are bewildered by the Trump political saga, by the precarious state of
democracy in the country, but national polls suggest that he may well be
re-elected to the most powerful political job in the world.
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